On 10 February 2024, President Katalin Novák announced her resignation after it was revealed that she had granted clemency to an accomplice in a paedophilia case during the Pope’s visit. Over the year that has since passed, an unprecedented political transformation has taken place in Hungary, a country where political shifts usually occur at a glacial pace. This change can largely be attributed to Péter Magyar, emerging on the tailwind of the clemency affair. As the media described him a year ago: the ex-husband of former Minister of Justice Judit Varga quickly overtook the fragmented and ineffective opposition, by then worn down by a series of defeats. By the end of the year, his Tisza Party had caught up with Fidesz — or, depending on which figures one deems credible, even surpassed the governing party.

We averaged and visualised over a year’s worth of opinion polling to track the transformation of the party system. Our analysis is based on data from seven research institutes: Medián, IDEA, Republikon, 21 Research Centre, Závecz Research, Nézőpont, as well as Századvég, spanning from November 2023 to December 2024.

Until last autumn, the polls showed similar trends. However, from October onwards, pro-government and independent/opposition-aligned pollsters began portraying entirely different political realities. Even the government-friendly side acknowledges that Viktor Orbán is facing the strongest opposition challenge in the history of his reign, though they reassuringly maintain that Fidesz still holds a commanding lead. Meanwhile, independent and opposition-leaning pollsters report an ever-growing lead for Tisza. Regardless of where the truth lies, both perspectives indicate a fundamental shift compared to a year ago.

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